以色列和叙利亚是否为和平做好了准备?

耶路撒冷——在长达八年的战争威胁之后,以色列和叙利亚之间恢复和平谈判并不是为了分散人们对以色列瘸鸭总理政治困境的注意力。和平谈判也不是叙利亚为了躲避国际法庭对黎巴嫩前总理拉菲克·哈里里遇刺审判而耍弄的诡计。以色列和叙利亚的和平协议在战略上对双方都至关重要,而且双方都对这一点心知肚明。

影响叙利亚民族社会复兴党发展的两大事件分别是哈菲兹·阿萨德在1967年与以色列交战中失去戈兰高地,还有哈菲兹的儿子巴沙尔在以美国为首无法抗拒的国际压力下被迫从黎巴嫩撤军。收复戈兰高地和保护叙利亚在黎巴嫩的重要利益不仅是叙利亚总统的重要战略任务,也将对现任政府争取国家合法性、以及巴沙尔确立自己领导地位的努力产生至关重要的影响。

与以色列实现和平并非阿萨德的首要任务。相反,叙以和平是一种先决条件,如果缺少了这种条件,与美国恢复关系、实现叙利亚在黎巴嫩特殊地位的合法化和在未能通过和平手段收复戈兰高地的情况下避免与以色列爆发潜在毁灭性战争等更为远大的目标就将成为空中楼阁。事实上,叙利亚政权已经暗示愿意在划界问题上做出让步——1967年沿加利利海东岸一个小岛划界努力的失败曾经在八年前让谈判毁于一旦。

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