Comments 4

阿拉伯的春天和西方的冬天

Mar 27, 2017 Ishac Diwan

贝鲁特——2010年开始的阿拉伯之春运动、英国退欧公投、美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当选以及整个欧洲极右翼势力的复苏有着很多惊人的相似之处。每种情况都涉及旧秩序的塌陷，而进步党派势力又太过薄弱乃至抵挡不住专制和仇外等执政形式的进攻。

2010-11年催生导致阿拉伯起义运动的日渐增加的对现状的不满其原因多种多样，而且反对派既采取了进步也采取了保守形式的反抗。中产阶级不满于在不负责任的精英手中丧失尊严。而年轻人则不满于相比他们父母一代未来变得尤其暗淡。伊斯兰教徒则煽动道德方面对社会伦理价值观丧失的抵抗。

在西方社会心怀不满的白人民众、流离失所的工人和沮丧的青年一代数量不断增加的情况下，这都是长期辩论中反复出现的主题。随着时间的推移，在经济自由主义挤出长久以来平等和社会团结原则的同时，造成了巨大的贫富差距，并因此侵蚀了许多西方国家的政治。

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Allan Bleiken Apr 4, 2017

THIS IS AN EXCELLENT ARTICLE - MY COMPLIMENTS TO ISHAC DIWAN
This is one of the most insightful commentaries on the situation facing the world today. If the world does not come to grips with the growing conflicts that have emerged, the future looks desperate indeed. This article reflects the growing frustration within society in terms of how the world is being managed by the few for the benefit of the few. This is how revolutions and wars begin. What a terrible outcome for a world that has so much potential to do good.
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vivek iyer Mar 28, 2017

The Arab Spring featured 3 factors not present in the current opposition to the 'liberal world order' in the West.
1) Agricultural crisis linked to global spike in food prices. The Syrian regime neglected agricultural distress which affected soldier's families. There was a lot of corruption in bureau's concerned with water allocation etc. The method of subsidies or using PL480 aid distorted the market and increased vulnerability across the region. These problems were compounded by
2) Complacent dynastic autocrats who were supporting 'ne0-liberal' policies from which crony capitalists or their own sons or daughters would benefit. They disregarded their traditional client base. Assad was not a military officer. His wife was an Investment Banker in London. He was focusing on crony capitalism to benefit the old elite. Mubarak wanted to by pass the Army and hand power to his son Gamal- an Investment Banker who set up a private equity fund. He has since been convicted of corruption.
3) Splits within Islamic political movements created unforeseen problems. Internecine squabbles gained salience so there was no united front among Islamic political parties either internally or across borders. This was a great pity because many of whom would otherwise have had the legitimacy to offer a stable alternative to older 'Secular-Socialist' military backed regimes. Young people became disillusioned because the Islamic parties wanted to curb the very freedoms which they had fought for. Even Turkey- the ideal where a conservative muslim party was cohabiting peacefully with a secularist army and presiding over rapid manufacturing growth- has been down because of some problem between the ruler and the 'Gulenists' which does not appear to have any thelogocial foundation.

By contrast, in Europe and USA the shift to the right was already on the cards and represented a rational response to issues concerning voters in more vulnerable sectors of the Economy. Thus we see
1) Under Obama deportations and other restrictions championed by Trump were already being enforced. Obama had tackled the issues facing the 'Rust-Belt' though he did not get credit for it. Similarly, Europe did finally- somewhat belatedly- crack down on migration and also loosened the conditions of the 'Growth and Stability pact'. That trend will continue no matter who comes to power. Merkel may not be brought down because she did after all do a U turn. What will be remembered is that she did so reluctantly for virtuous reasons. Similarly Obama will be remembered kindly because he did what was necessary without creating a sulphurous political atmosphere. Trump's visa ban failed because it was unconstitutional. It turned out that Obama had already done what was legally possible- that too without using xenophobic language.
However Obama's big trade deal TTIP was already dead in the water because of European opposition. Trump was pushing against an open door.
Obama gave a great speech at Cairo but we can't blame him for the failure of the Arab Spring. Why? He was always cautious. He understood 'regime change' was a mirage. His pragmatic policy put him at odds with Hilary Clinton and with European leaders. Trump got elected for championing that same policy- though he did not give Obama credit for it. Obama did what was necessary but without drama.
2) Advanced economies can insulate themselves from supply shocks and ameliorate conditions for vulnerable sections provided they enforce border controls and limit access to welfare to indigenous people. It is quite easy for them to take one step back from 'universal' rights and entitlements. I believe that Europe will take this course- in which case Brexit needn't have happened. However, we must remember, it was the fault of the British Labour Party, which was in power, that Britain opted for unrestricted migration under the terms of the relevant Treaty. In other words, Britain is paying a price for its own miscalculation. The Brexit vote was at least partly about punishing the elites who made this mistake.
3) The 'alt-right' seems more like a fad compared to the appeal of the Ikhwan- which appeals to family and neighbourhood values. It seems to attract lonely young men who like using disgusting language. Who seems more Christian- Obama or Trump? Merkel or Orban? During the Arab Spring you had a gerontocratic military caste which was out of touch with the mood in the barracks. It was living in a fantasy world of hedge funds and family dynasties. The Wife of the Dictator felt she should be appearing in the Style section of Vogue magazine. This type of 'Pharonic' behaviour was disliked because farmers were having to abandon their land. The price of bread was rising.

The author of this piece thinks it's a good thing for millions to spend their time occupying the local 'Tahrir' Square. This is magical thinking. Just because a lot of people stand in 'Liberation Square' and shout 'We want Liberty' does not mean that anything good will happen. Older people know very well that standing somewhere and shouting 'Death to X or Death to Y' does not actually kill anything. Young people have also discovered this for themselves.

The author says 'The next time millions of people march peacefully in Cairo to demand that their voices be heard, the trigger may not be a self-immolation in Sidi Bouzid, but a riot in Istanbul, the impeachment of a US president, or electoral victories for progressive parties in Europe.'
This seems quite crazy. Suppose Trump is impeached. There may be big spontaneous celebrations in city centres across the globe but it won't change anything politically. Why? Which head of Government is going to order the Army to shoot the people who assemble in this manner. Why should such demonstrations provoke a harsh reaction? Is Trump really so beloved a figure?
What made Tahrir Square important was the fact that Mubarak had lost the support of the Army. He ordered the Army to fire and they refused. So Mubarak fell while the Army preserved its reputation. The Brotherhood had a chance to show they were better than Mubarak. They failed. The army came back in with a popular Chief. Is Sisi mad that he would order his troops to shoot anti-Trump or anti-Erdogan demonstrators?

Maybe the author thinks demonstrations are a good thing in themselves. The Arab Spring is evidence this is not the case.
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Steve Hurst Mar 28, 2017

Its is completely misguided to suggest there is commonality between the Arab Spring and the Western Winter of Discontent. To start with the Arab Spring was a political flash in the pan which disappeared like a snowball in Hell and the Western root problem is an ageing demographic economic issue which is not going away
- Henk Crop Mar 29, 2017
  
  What is also not going away is the huge population increase in the Arab world. A growth that exceeds their economic growth. This means lots of unemployed and frustrated young people.
  It is a big challenge for the Arab Governments.
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Andrew Cole Mar 27, 2017

Fact during Mr Cameron's "renegotiation" prior to losing the Brexit referendum, the EU forecast 2/3 of its population increase as being dumped in England. That's not "fear of the other", not "Xenophobia", its a reasonable reaction to the complete break down in the housing market and provision of services caused by a population explosion outside of democratic control - in fact, as we have seen subsequently in bullying threats made by Germany, a hostile colonization under duress of threat of a trade war. The author is being a complete hypocrite in slinging around insults which fit his generalisations far better than his English victims.
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阿拉伯的春天和西方的冬天

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