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基本面可靠的神话

纽黑文—起伏太容易预测了。随着美国股市从2月初的大幅调整中逐步恢复,无脑大牛市的诅咒也开始回归。如今,最近的回调被定义为短暂的偏离——一次波动性冲击——投资环境仍然十分适宜。毕竟,这一观点说,经济基本面——不仅仅是美国,也包括全世界——很久没有那么好了。

但基本面真的如此可靠吗?对储蓄缓冲薄得可怜的美国经济来说,没有比这离得更远的真相了。2017年三季度,美国的净国民储蓄率——企业、家庭和政府部门储蓄之和——只有国民收入的2.1%,仅仅相当于二十世纪结束前三十年平均水平6.3%的三分之一。

看到储蓄要以“净值”思维,这一点很重要。这意味着要在评估经济留出多少资金用于产能扩张时,要将已经报废或废弃的产能的折旧剔除。净储蓄代表了今天对未来的投资,而美国的计算结果是储蓄接近于零。

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