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الفرصة الثانية للربيع العربي

Apr 23, 2019 Ishac Diwan

نيويورك- لقد أدت الاحتجاجات الواسعة في الجزائر والسودان مؤخرا الى الاطاحة باثنين من المستبدين الطاعنين بالسن بعد 20 و 30 عاما على التوالي من الحكم المطلق وفي كلا البلدين هناك مفاوضات تجري حاليا بين المتمردين والجيش الذي يدير فعليا العملية الانتقالية لنظام سياسي جديد . ان نتيجة صراع القوى هذا سيساعد في تحديد ما اذا كانت الجزائر والسودان ستصبحان أكثر ديمقراطية ورخاء او عوضا عن ذلك ستشكلان اضافة الى سلسلة تمتد لعقد من الزمان من الامال الضائعة في المنطقة.

يبدو ان المتظاهرين مدركين تماما لمخاطر "الفخ المصري" حيث ينتهي المطاف بجنرال كان من المفترض ان يتولى مسؤولية حكومة انتقالية ليصبح رئيسا مدى الحياة . ان الجنرال المصري والذي اصبح رئيسا عبد الفتاح السيسي يأمل ان يفعل ذلك بالضبط من خلال التعديل الدستوري الذي قد يبقيه بالحكم حتى سنة 2030 على اقل تقدير .

ان التنازل عن الكثير من السلطة للجيش لن يضر بالامال الديمقراطية للمحتجين الجزائريين والسودانيين فحسب بل سيزيد كذلك من خطر ان يستمر الجنرالات بالاستيلاء على حصة مفرطة من الموارد العامة الشحيحة مع احباط اي محاولات لتنفيذ الاصلاحات الاقتصادية العاجلة .

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venze chern Apr 25, 2019

Why still harping on to the fictitious 'Arab Spring' incessantly? If there hasn't been one, where is the necessity of giving it a second chance? Journalists, eschew from being recalcitrant.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 24, 2019

Ishac Diwan says protesters in Algeria and Sudan seem to have learned “hard” lessons from the Arab Spring and remained determined to avoid an outcome similar to Egypt, where President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi swept to power in a military coup. Tahrir Square in Cairo was the hub of a revolution, which unseated Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, after three decades of autocratic rule.
Elections were held in 2012, and the Islamist party, the Muslim Brotherhood won in landslide. In 2013 a coup ousted Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first freely-elected president. Army chief Sisi took over and was elected president in 2014. He won a second four-year-term in March 2018, and is set to remain in power until 2030 following constitutional amendments last week.
Protesters in Algeria and Sudan have reasons to fear meeting the same fate as the Egyptians and want to reduce the growing role of their militaries in politics. Thanks to oil revenues, military spending in both countries rose significantly between 2007-2017. Algeria’s army is the second largest in Africa (after that of Egypt). According to the annual review of military strength ranking – the 2019 Global Firepower list – Sudan ranks 69 (of 137). Egypt – 12 and Algeria – 27.
The author points out how Sisi has asserted control over the judiciary and increased the military’s political power. His brutal crackdown on workers’ rights and the freedom of expression has been more extreme than anything seen in Mubarak’s repressive rule. Journalists have been discredited, censored and jailed, turning Egypt into an open-air prison for critics and dissidents. Sisi’s attempt to extend his rule comes as autocrats in neighbouring Sudan and Algeria have fallen to popular protests after decades in power.
In Algeria and Sudan, after the ouster of two long-ruling autocrats – Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Omar al-Bashir – the military and the army have taken over, claiming to form caretaker governments, in the absence of, what they call a ready civilian candidate to replace Boteflika or al-Bashir. The oppositions in the two countries call for swift transition to civilian rule, considering the power of the military establishments.
In Algeria, the influential military, which has long been the backbone of the regime, sought to position itself as on the side of the people by bringing forward Bouteflika’s resignation. The powerful army chief, Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, who could seek to benefit from a political vacuum at the top, indicated that the military would shepherd a three-month transition period, culminating in a presidential election on July 4. But protesters vow to continue until the departure of all those in the old regime, including acting head-of-state, Abdelkader Bensalah and Gaïd Salah.
In Sudan, the military has been in control for more than three decades. The longstanding dictator, General Omar al-Bashir, was forced out of power by his right-hand man, General Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, who was placed on a sanctions list by the US, and indicted by the International Criminal Court in 2009 for his role in the genocide in Darfur. Auf announced that he would be at the helm of a two-year transitional government. Al-Bashir's ouster was welcomed by many Sudanese, who took to the streets since December. However, they remain wary of this dubious transition of power.
The removal of two aging dictators marked a victory for popular protest in the region. Determined not to be the victims of the same forces of history, Algerians and the Sudanese have shown “an unwavering commitment to reducing the governance role of their countries’ armies.” They fear the top brass will now move to sow discord, divide, and then violently crush the popular protest movements, that justify their crackdown in the name of law and order.
For now, protesters are staying on the streets, calling for a wholesale removal of the autocratic regimes that have long dominated their societies. The next few weeks will show “whether they can wrestle enough control from the generals to start building a more hopeful future.”
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