После августовских ракет

Ближний Восток – это место, где пыль почти никогда оседает. А когда это все-таки и происходит, даже на короткий промежуток времени (как, например, в случае Резолюции ООН 1701 о прекращении военных действий в Ливане), то стоит сразу же обдумать события в надежде на то, что компетентные размышления окажут влияние на людей, находящихся у власти.

Давайте начнем с США. Президент Джордж Буш не был краток ни в инициативах, ни в броских лозунгах, ни в акронимах. В последние годы они повсюду: «Глобальная война с Терроризмом» (GWOT), «Дорожная Карта», «Инициатива ближневосточного партнерства» (MEPI), «Расширенная ближневосточная и Северная Африка» (BMENA) – первоначально «Большая ближневосточная Инициатива» (GMEI) – Диалог Демократической Помощи (DAD) и так далее. Последней его фантазией, появившейся в воображении в связи с недавней войной между Израилем и Хезбаллой, был Новый Ближний Восток (NME), с американо-зависимыми государствами Израилем, Египтом, Иорданией и Саудовской Аравией, служащими опорой регионального порядка.

Но как и все его предыдущие инициативы, начиная с времени террористических атак на Нью-Йорк и Вашингтон, почти пять лет назад, с самого начала Новый Ближний Восток столкнулся с неприятностями. Госсекретарь Кондолиза Райс объявила его рождение, при этом отклонив немедленное прекращение боевых действий в Ливане. Неудачно выбранный ею момент заставил инициативу казаться бессердечной, поскольку тысячи гражданских жителей покинули свои дома, были убиты, или искалечены эффективной, но безжалостной артиллерией Израиля и его воздушными силами.

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