Mexican fence Charles Ommanney/Getty Images

Die Achillesferse Trump’scher Wirtschaftspolitik

NEW HAVEN – Donald Trumps Wirtschaftsstrategie weist schwere Fehler auf. Der designierte US-Präsident will das Wachstum durch defizitfinanzierte Ausgaben ankurbeln, und das in einem Land, in dem sowieso viel zu wenig gespart wird. Dies deutet auf eine weitere Verringerung der nationalen Ersparnisse hin, was eine Vergrößerung des schon jetzt übergroßen Handelsdefizites praktisch unvermeidlich macht.

Diese Dynamik offenbart die Achillesferse von Trumps Wirtschaftspolitik: eine unverhohlene protektionistische Neigung, die im krassen Widerspruch zu Amerikas unübersehbarer Abhängigkeit von ausländischen Ersparnissen und Handelsdefiziten zur Aufrechterhaltung des Wirtschaftswachstums steht.

Die Regierung Trump wird keine starke, gesunde US-Volkswirtschaft erben. Das Tempo der Erholung seit der Großen Rezession war nur halb so hoch wie das normaler zyklischer Aufschwünge – was angesichts des enormen Ausmaßes der Kontraktion der Jahre 2008-09 umso verstörender ist. Und um die Ersparnisse, das Saatkorn künftigen Wohlstands, ist es jämmerlich schlecht bestellt. Die sogenannte nationale Netto-Sparquote – die abschreibungsbereinigte Summe der Ersparnisse der Unternehmen, privaten Haushalte und des Staates – betrug Mitte 2016 ganze 2,4% vom Volkseinkommen. Auch wenn das eine Verbesserung gegenüber der beispiellosen negativen Sparquote der Jahre 2008-2011 ist, liegt sie damit weiter deutlich unter dem Durchschnitt von 6,3% der letzten drei Jahrzehnte des 20. Jahrhunderts.

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