Dean Rohrer

Un proposta modesta per il G-20

PECHINO – Durante un incontro organizzato a Pechino dalla “Initiative for Policy Dialogue” della Columbia University e dall’Università Centrale di finanza ed economia della Cina a marzo, studenti e policymaker hanno discusso sulle modalità di riforma del sistema monetario internazionale. Dopotutto, anche nel caso in cui non sia stato il sistema a provocare in modo diretto gli squilibri recenti e l’instabilità dell’economia globale, si è comunque dimostrato inefficace nel gestirli.

Eventuali riforme richiederanno ovviamente ampie discussioni e deliberazioni. Ma il consenso riscontrato a Pechino ha indicato che il G-20 dovrebbe adottare una proposta modesta per quest’anno, ovvero optare per un’espansione limitata del sistema attuale dei Diritti Speciali di Prelievo (DSP) del Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Questa proposta, sebbene limitata nell’ambito, potrebbe svolgere un ruolo importante per l’avvio delle discussioni su riforme più radicali, aiutando anche a ripristinare la fragile economia mondiale e a raggiungere l’obiettivo espresso nella dichiarazione del G-20 di Pittsburgh, ovvero una crescita forte, sostenibile ed equilibrata.  

A nostro avviso, il ruolo dei Diritti Speciali di Prelievo dovrebbe essere allargato a nuove aree e si dovrebbe aumentare il loro utilizzo sotto forma di prestiti dell’FMI. In questo modo si riuscirebbe a portare avanti il suggerimento avanzato nel corso dell’incontro del G-20 di Londra nell’aprile del 2009 e poi realizzato in tempi rapidi, ovvero quello di stanziare 250 miliardi di dollari di DSP. Il G-20 potrebbe proporre all’FMI di emettere un quantitativo consistente di DSP nei prossimi tre anni, ovvero 150-250 miliardi di DSP su base annuale (pari a circa 240-390 miliardi al tasso di cambio attuale).

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