永别了(荣耀的)战争

最近几天,意大利政府在国会中未能通过向阿富汗部署军队的议案之后倒台。同时英国和丹麦也宣布了它们将开始把部队撤出伊拉克。而布什政府却正向伊拉克增派21000名美国士兵,并敦促盟国增兵阿富汗。美国的盟友们正抵制其中东政策。它们日益坚信在任何不对称的国家间冲突中,不论武装叛乱者有多强大、其宗教驱动力有多深厚,“胜利”都是不可捉摸的。

唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德的军事“转型”定论—以军队实力的技术升级来实现用更少的部队取得决定性胜利—在伊拉克彻底失败。以色列即便拥有超强的技术优势也未能打败黎巴嫩真主党。在33天时间里落到以色列北部的火箭和导弹数量比二战期间袭击英国的还多。因此以色列人现在必须正视这一全新的现象:一个拥有国家级火力的不对称实体,真主党。

所以关于是否应该扩大美军驻伊拉克地面部队规模的激烈争论是毫无意义的。前苏联1980年代在阿富汗的经验和北约当今的情况都无法证明军队的数量是现代战场上最为重要的因素这一命题。当地缘战略军事前沿不复存在,正如在科索沃、阿富汗和伊拉克那样,人多势众就不再等同于胜利。伟大的军事思想家克劳斯·冯·克劳塞维茨关于将“决定性战役”作为战争的“重心”的理念在全然没有“重心”的冲突中也失去了用武之地。

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