习近平眼中的世界

北京——11月16日结束的中共第18次党代表大会产生了新中国历史上第五代领导人,习近平出任中共总书记和中央军委主席,明年3月他还讲出任中国国家主席。这位新任的中国最高领导人将如何领导中国的国内建设和改革进程,如何规划和实施中国的外交关系,等待着这位中国新领导人肯定不只是荣誉、权力和聚光灯,更多地可能是考验和挑战。问题是,这位中国今天最高权力拥有者究竟会如何来看待世界,又将怎样来处理对外关系,习的外交和他的前任胡锦涛的外交会不会出现什么样的变化和调整,对这些问题的回答显然对展望未来中国的内政外交都具有重要的意义。

中国的领导人获得权力和运用权力的过程完全不同于美国的领导人。在一个竞选政治的环境中,政治领袖学会的基本要领就是如何兜售自己的理念和见解。在中国这样的“选拨政治”的环境中,领导人公开袒露自己心迹的机会并不多,向公众展示自己对世界事务认识的机会更是少之又少。美国作为唯一的全球大国,美国总统的外交事务是其施政的重要内容。美国总统就重大的国际问题和事件直接发表观点和见解是很常见的。但中国迄今还是一个成长中的大国,中国的最高领导人虽然直接主管外交事务,但并不需要直接在对外关系中经常喊话来表达自身和政府的立场,也几乎很少就重大国际事件直接发表媒体谈话,来传达和强调自己的立场和政策。除了毛泽东和邓小平之外,中国领导人很少让自己的个性和见解直接主导中国的外交政策。从这个意义上来说,“习的外交”,将会继续是中国政府的外交,而很难期待是习自己的个性和认识主导的外交。然而,“习时代”的中国外交将必然不同于“胡的时代”。

首先,习近平这一代的中国领导人,接受教育和成长都是在改革开放之后。1978年的中国,刚刚开始向世界打开大门。习和他的同龄人是迫不及待地想要学习西方的一代,是强调知识可以改变国家、改变命运的一代,更是深受邓小平务实主义思想启发、用于挣脱中国“左”的意识形态束缚的一代。他们年轻时的这种经历和认识,深深印刻在他们的观念深处。因此,当这一代中国成为国家领袖的时候,他们依然将继续兑现他们年轻时候的那份求知、求新的热情。可以肯定的是,他们将继续愿意向世界学习,愿意在逐步推进中国改变的同时去追求中国的利益。2011年9月美国副总统拜登访华后曾对《纽约时报》记者谈到他和习相处5天的印象,那就是习近平对美国的政治体制有兴趣。习事实上将对一切能够让他的国家强大的事情有兴趣。

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