Les taux d'intérêt en hausse torpilleront-ils les prix des actions et des maisons ?

Les taux d'intérêt du monde entier sont voués à augmenter. Les taux à court terme sont descendus si bas depuis la récession mondiale de 2001 (1 % et 2 %, respectivement, aux Etats-Unis et dans la zone euro, et quasiment 0 % au Japon) qu'une économie mondiale consolidée obligerait les banques centrales à tirer sur les rênes monétaires.

La banque centrale d'Australie a augmenté ses taux depuis mai 2002 et celle de Grande-Bretagne a fait de même depuis novembre 2003.

Aux Etats-Unis, la réunion du Comité fédéral du marché ouvert, qui se tiendra les 29 et 30 juin prochains, devrait marquer un tournant majeur en inversant le déclin régulier du taux de référence des fonds fédéraux constaté depuis 2001, date à laquelle Alan Greenspan a commencé à relâcher la politique monétaire. Cette inversion devrait être suivie par des augmentations des taux en Chine, dans la zone euro et dans bien d'autres pays.

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