china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Die Illusion der finanziellen Singularität

NEW HAVEN – In ihrem neuen Buch The Incredible Shrinking Alpha beschreiben Larry E. Swedroe und Andrew L. Berkin ein Investitionsumfeld, in dem zunehmend technisch-wissenschaftlich versierte Analysten agieren, die auf Big Data, leistungsfähige Computer und akademische Forschung setzen. Angesichts dieses Wettbewerbs „werden die Hürden, Alpha zu erzielen [also Renditen über einer risikobereinigten Benchmark –  und daher Maß für den Erfolg bei der Auswahl einzelner Anlagen] immer höher.”

Diese Schlussfolgerung wirft eine Frage auf: Wird sich Alpha letztlich für jede vorstellbare Anlagestrategie in Richtung null bewegen? Oder grundlegender gefragt: Rückt der Tag näher, an dem die Finanzmärkte dank vieler kluger Köpfe und noch klügerer Computer ein Maß an Vollkommenheit erreichen, an dem wir uns gemütlich zurücklehnen, entspannen und davon ausgehen können, dass sämtliche Vermögenswerte korrekt bepreist sind?

Diesen imaginären Zustand könnte man als finanzielle Singularität bezeichnen – in Anlehnung an die hypothetische technologische Singularität, jenen Zeitpunkt also, an dem Computer an die Stelle menschlicher Intelligenz treten. Finanzielle Singularität impliziert, dass sämtliche Investitionsentscheidungen am besten einem Computerprogramm überlassen werden, da Experten mit ihren Algorithmen die Triebkräfte hinter Marktergebnissen ergründet und daraus  ein fehlerfreies System entwickelt haben.  

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