china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Le mirage de la singularité financière

NEW HAVEN – Dans leur nouveau livre The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E. Swedroe et Andrew L. Berkin décrivent un environnement d'investissement peuplé d’analystes de plus en plus sophistiqués qui se basent sur les big data, des ordinateurs puissants et la recherche scientifique. Avec toute cette concurrence, « les obstacles à la réalisation de l'alpha [des rendements supérieurs à un niveau de référence ajusté pour le risque – et donc une mesure de succès utile pour choisir entre plusieurs investissements individuels] sont plus en plus élevés ».

Cette conclusion soulève une question clé : l’alpha est-il voué à s’annuler pour chaque stratégie d'investissement imaginable ? Plus fondamentalement, nous approchons-nous du jour où, grâce à tant de gens intelligents et d’ordinateurs encore plus intelligents, les marchés financiers deviendront effectivement parfaits, et où nous pourrons simplement nous asseoir, détendus, et faire l’hypothèse que tous les actifs sont évalués correctement ?

Ce scenario ​​imaginé pourrait être appelé la singularité financière, analogue à l’hypothèse de la singularité technologique à venir, lorsque les ordinateurs remplaceront l'intelligence humaine. La singularité financière implique qu’il serait préférable de laisser toutes les décisions d'investissement à un programme d'ordinateur, parce que les experts ont compris grâce à leurs algorithmes ce qui détermine les résultats du marché et l’ont réduit à un système sans heurts.

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