Alexi Tsipras Martin Schulz/Flickr

Ecco perchè il piano di salvataggio della Grecia è fallito

CAMBRIDGE – Con l’evolversi della crisi greca, è importante comprendere che un programma di modifiche strutturali richiede una forte appropriazione del processo di riforme da parte del paese interessato. Anche se i negoziatori dovessero riuscire a superare i punti controversi, sarà difficile avere fiducia nella loro implementazione se il popolo greco continua ad essere scettico. Così è stato almeno finora. Ma senza riforme strutturali l’economia greca ha poche possibilità di arrivare ad una stabilità sostenuta e alla crescita, soprattutto perchè i creditori ufficiali non sono disposti a continuare ad elargire nuovi fondi ben più cospicui di quanto è stato chiesto per ripagare il debito ad una Grecia non riformata. (E’ andata così nella maggior parte delle crisi anche se queste informazioni non vengono date dalla stampa a livello mondiale).

L’appartenenza della Grecia all’Unione europea conferisce ai suoi creditori una certa influenza, ma evidentemente non sufficiente da modificare il calcolo fondamentale. La Grecia rimane infatti un paese sovrano e non sub-sovrano. La “troika” dei creditori (ovvero il Fondo Monetario Internazionale, la Banca Centrale Europea e la Commissione europea) non hanno la stessa influenza sulla Grecia che aveva, ad esempio, l’ente municipale di assistenza sulla città di New York quando era sull’orlo della bancarotta nella metà degli anni ’70.

I programmi migliori di aggiustamento strutturale sono quelli in cui il governo del paese debitore propone dei cambiamenti delle politiche e l’FMI aiuta a delineare un programma su misura fornendo la copertura politica per la fase d’implementazione. Imporre questi programmi dall’esterno non è un’opzione efficace, pertanto affinché le riforme vengano implementate a portate avanti, il governo greco ed il suo elettorato devono avere fiducia in esse.

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