Warum Indien gefährdeter ist als China

NEW HAVEN: Die Angst wächst, dass China und Indien die nächsten Opfer des derzeitigen Gemetzels innerhalb der Weltwirtschaft sein könnten. Dies hätte enorme Konsequenzen. Asiens Entwicklungsländer und neue Industrieländer wuchsen 2010-2011 um durchschnittlich 8,5% jährlich – fast dreimal so stark wie die restliche Welt mit ihren 3% Wachstum. Falls China und Indien als Nächstes fallen, wäre Asien in Gefahr, und es wäre schwer, eine globale Rezession zu vermeiden.

In einer wichtigen Hinsicht sind diese Sorgen verständlich: Beide Volkswirtschaften sind stark vom bereiteren globalen Klima abhängig. China ist anfällig für die Abwärtsrisiken bei der Außennachfrage – die wichtiger denn je sind, da auf das krisengeplagte Europa und die USA 2010 gemeinsam 38% seiner Gesamtexporte entfielen. Doch Indien mit seinem großen Leistungsbilanzdefizit und hohen externen Finanzierungsbedarf ist – bedingt durch die schwierige Lage an den weltweiten Finanzmärkten – in größerer Gefahr.

Freilich sind die Befürchtungen über eine harte Landung für beide Volkswirtschaften übertrieben, und insbesondere für China. Zwar zahlt China derzeit den Preis für die aggressiven Konjunkturimpulse, die das Land auf dem Höhepunkt der Subprime-Krise setzte. Das Bankensystem finanzierte die Masse der damaligen zusätzlichen Ausgaben und ist daher einer hierdurch bedingten Verschlechterung der Kreditqualität besonders ausgesetzt. Es gibt zudem Befürchtungen über eine Überhitzung am Immobilienmarkt und zunehmende Inflation.

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