Urban street in city in China.

Китай не обваливается

ЛОНДОН – Один вопрос доминировал в дискуссиях на годовом собрании Международного валютного фонда, прошедшем в этом году в Перу: вызовет ли экономический спад в Ките новый финансовый кризис, причем как раз в тот момент, когда мир начал успокаиваться после предыдущего? Однако лежащее в основе этого вопроса предположение, будто Китай сейчас самое слабое звено в мировой экономике, в высшей степени сомнительно.

Конечно, Китай пережил турбулентное лето, что было вызвано тремя факторами – ослабление экономики, финансовая паника и политическая реакция на эти проблемы. Хотя ни один из этих факторов не может сам по себе представлять опасность для мировой экономики, угроза возникла из-за взаимно усиливающегося взаимодействия между ними. Слабые экономические показатели привели к финансовому хаосу, ставшему причиной ошибочных политических решений, которые, в свою очередь, усилили финансовую панику, ещё больше ослабили экономику и способствовали новым политическим ошибкам.

В 2008-2009 годах мир осознал, что такая накручивающая сама себя реакция финансового рынка является намного более мощным переносчиком глобальной экономической инфекции, чем обычные коммерческие или торговые риски глобальной экономики. Вопрос сейчас в том, будет ли негативный цикл, начатый этим летом в Китае, раскручиваться дальше.

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