Urban street in city in China.

China bricht nicht zusammen

LONDON – Das Jahrestreffen des Internationalen Währungsfonds in diesem Jahr in Peru wurde vor allem durch eine Frage bestimmt: Wird Chinas wirtschaftliche Abschwächung eine neue Finanzkrise auslösen, gerade jetzt, wo die Welt die letzte verarbeitet hat? Aber die Annahme hinter dieser Frage – dass China jetzt das schwächste Kettenglied in der Weltwirtschaft sei – ist selbst in höchstem Maße fragwürdig.

Dass China einen turbulenten Sommer erlebt hat, liegt an drei Faktoren: wirtschaftlicher Schwäche, finanzieller Panik und den Maßnahmen gegen diese Probleme. Kein einzelner dieser Faktoren wäre für die Weltwirtschaft eine Bedrohung, aber die Gefahr liegt in einer sich selbst verstärkenden Wechselwirkung: Schwache Wirtschaftsdaten führen zu finanziellen Tumulten, die dann politische Fehlentscheidungen auslösen, die wiederum zu mehr Panik, wirtschaftlicher Schwäche und politischen Fehlern führen.

Ein solcher sich selbst verstärkender finanzieller Teufelskreis wirkt viel hemmender auf die Weltwirtschaft als die normalen Handelsprobleme, wie die Welt in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 erfahren musste. Die Frage ist nun, ob der Teufelskreis, der im Sommer in China begann, weitergehen wird.

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