Paul Lachine

埃及革命何去何从?

华盛顿——2月,埃及革命推翻了独裁者,但埃及是否能够成为一个正常运转的稳定民主国家还远未尘埃落定。当然,西方在决定埃及转型过程方面只能起到有限作用。尽管如此,西方仍具有相当可观的潜在建设性影响力,对于支持自由思想、民主制度以及让经济发展惠及全埃及的埃及人,西方应该有所反应。

即将到来的议会选举只是迈向新埃及的漫长斗争的第一步,整个过程可能会持续数十年。埃及将滑向伊斯兰神权政体,还是会产生一个尊重少数派权利的世俗政府?哪些经济政策能最好地确保社会公平和惠及广大埃及人民的繁荣?是中央计划体制,还是自由经济,还是两者的结合?是否会建立由人民掌控的军队?围绕美国、埃及以及以色列的地区安全结构是否能保留下来?

11月的选举解决不了基本问题,且是否能产生一个有效的宪法框架还不确定。到时可能会产生一个政府议会体系,包括一位总理和一个内阁,总统的政治影响力很有可能会受到压制,特别是若总统选举被推迟的话。最大的未知数是执政联盟的组成。

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