Paul Lachine

¿Dónde queda Europa?

BEIJING – Ante la probabilidad de un contagio de implosión de la deuda soberana y la reducción en gran medida de la posibilidad de quiebras bancarias gracias al acuerdo sobre la deuda griega y el programa de crédito del Banco Central Europeo, es tiempo de mirar hacia adelante. ¿Cuál es la dirección que seguirán la Unión Europea, la eurozona y los países de la UE fuertemente endeudados? ¿Logrará Europa reducir los más grandes excesos de sus Estados de bienestar sin que los problemas económicos y el descontento social desestabilicen los gobiernos, y en los países periféricos socaven los acuerdos de por sí frágiles con los acreedores?

Algunas buenas noticias en el mundo tendrán un impacto en la forma de resolver estos asuntos. La economía de los Estados Unidos está reactivándose gradualmente, aunque lentamente con respecto de los estándares de recuperación de una fuerte recesión. China, Brasil y la India no se han desvinculado de sus consumidores en Europa y América del Norte, y por ende están ralentizando, aunque es probable que no resulten demasiado afectadas si la recesión en Europa es moderada y dura poco como se ha pronosticado.

La producción económica y la población de la UE son más grandes que en los Estados Unidos, por lo que la suerte de los 27 países de la UE es un asunto que nos concierne a todos, ya sea en Nueva York, Nueva Delhi, Sao Paulo o Shanghai. Originalmente conformada como un área de libre comercio, la eurozona se compone de 17 países. Unir a 17 economías, culturas e instituciones dispares fue un proyecto monumental de enorme riesgo.

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