Paul Lachine

Dove Va l’Europa?

BEIJING – Oggi che si è fortemente ridotta la probabilità di un’implosione contagiosa del debito sovrano e del fallimento delle banche europee grazie all’accordo sul debito greco ed il programma di prestiti della Banca Centrale Europea,amp#160; è il momento di guardare avanti. Dove sono diretti a questo punto l’Unione Europea, la zona euro, e i paesi dell’Unione Europea gravemente indebitati? L’Europa sarà in grado di ridimensionare gli aspetti più gravosi del suo welfare senza che le difficoltà economiche e i disagi sociali comportino la caduta dei governi e che, nei paesi periferici, vengano compromessi i già fragili accordi con i creditori?

Qualche buona notizia a livello mondiale può avere un impatto positivo sul modo di affrontare tali questioni. L’economia statunitense è in graduale ripresa, anche se lentamente per gli standard di recupero da una profonda depressione. Considerato che la Cina, il Brasile, e l’India restano dipendenti dai loro clienti europei e statunitensi, anche loro sono in una fase di rallentamento, anche se è probabile che ciò andrà a buon fine se la recessione europea sarà breve e leggera come previsto.

Dato che la produzione economica dell’UE e la sua popolazione sono maggiori di quelle degli Stati Uniti, il destino dei suoi 27 paesi riguarda tutti, da New York a Nuova Delhi, da San Paolo a Shanghai. Costituitasi originariamente come zona di libero scambio, la zona euro comprende 17 dei paesi europei. Il mettere insieme 17 economie completamente diverse, le loro culture ed istituzioni è stata un’impresa colossale, densa di pericoli.

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