Paul Lachine

欧洲将向何处去?

北京—希腊债务协议的达成和欧洲央行贷款计划的实施大幅减少了传染性主权债去大爆发和欧洲央行大批倒闭的可能性,现在,我们应该把目光朝前看。欧盟、欧元区以及债务沉重的欧元区成员国将何去何从?欧洲能够成功地减少其福利国家最大的国度支出项,同时又不引起经济灾难、颠覆政府的社会动荡并且(在外围国家)不影响弱不禁风的债权人协议。

全球范围内的一些好消息将对这些问题的解决产生影响。美国经济正在逐步恢复活力,尽管从深度衰退复苏的角度看显得相当缓慢。中国、巴西和印度并没有与欧洲和北美的消费者脱钩,因此,尽管它们正在减速,但若欧洲的衰退如预计那样缓慢而温和,它们可以实现相对较“软”的着陆。

欧盟的经济产出和人口数量都要高于美国,因此其17个成员国的命运与我们所有人息息相关,不管你身处纽约还是新德里,圣保罗还是上海。由自由贸易区演变而成的欧元区拥有17个成员国。将17个经济、文化和制度都大相径庭的国家捆绑在一起是一项伟业,需要面临重重危险。

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