Paul Lachine

¿Cuál nuevo Oriente Medio?

BERLÍN – Más allá de si la democratización en el “nuevo Oriente Medio” tenga éxito o de si formas autoritarias de gobierno volverán a prevalecer, un cambio fundamental ya se ha tornado evidente: nadie podrá gobernar sin tener en cuenta la opinión pública interna.

Este cambio modificará los parámetros de política exterior en el conflicto de Oriente Medio (entendido como un conflicto palestino-israelí y, al mismo tiempo, como un conflicto entre israelíes y árabes en términos más generales). A pesar de las guerras en el Líbano y Gaza, y de las intifadas en la ocupada Cisjordania, estos parámetros han demostrado ser sorprendentemente estables durante décadas, afianzados por los acuerdos de paz con Egipto y Jordania y los acuerdos de Oslo con los palestinos.

Todo esto está a punto de cambiar. Y, si bien el cambio tectónico en la región fue generado por el “Despertar Árabe”, sus actores no se limitan al mundo árabe o a los confines del conflicto de Oriente Medio. Estados Unidos, Europa, Turquía y, en cierta medida, Irán son de algún modo protagonistas –algunos de manera más directa que otros.

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