Paul Lachine

什么样的新中东?

发自柏林——不管“新中东”的民主化能否成功或是独裁政府卷入土重来,一个根本性的变化已经明白无误地发生了:再没有人能在无视本国民意的情况下推行自身统治。

这一变化将改变应对中东地区冲突——以巴之间,或者宏观上的以色列人和阿拉伯人之间——的外交政策考虑因素。在以色列与埃及和约旦两国签署的和平协议,以及与巴勒斯坦人签订的《奥斯陆协议》的基础上,不管经历了黎巴嫩和加沙地区的战争还是西岸占领区的巴勒斯坦人起义,数十年里来这些因素都出人意料地保持了稳定

但这一切都将被改变。虽然该地区的政治架构变动是由所谓的“阿拉伯觉醒”所触发的,但其参与者并不仅限于阿拉伯世界或是中东冲突的范围。美国、欧洲,土耳其以及(在某种情况下)伊朗都粉墨登场——只是干涉的程度有不同而已。

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