Élections américaines : et le reste du monde ?

Alors que les primaires américaines sont désormais achevées dans l’Iowa et le New Hampshire, il est tout simplement impossible de prédire qui seront les nominés démocrate et républicain, et encore moins qui deviendra le 44e président des États-Unis. En revanche, il n’est pas trop tard pour répondre à la question des effets de la politique extérieure américaine sur la campagne, ni sur ce que cela révèle sur la manière dont les Américains voient le monde.  

À la surprise de nombreux observateurs pourtant aguerris, la politique étrangère n’a qu’une influence modeste sur les électeurs. Cela est d’autant plus inattendu que, il y a six mois encore, la guerre en Irak dominait les débats politiques. Bien que la question irakienne importe encore beaucoup pour les Américains, elle a désormais une importance moindre sur les votes des électeurs. Cela s’explique notamment par la baisse du nombre de ressortissants américains tués là-bas, la situation semblant petit à petit devenir plus sûre. La population américaine est par conséquent considérablement moins encline à réclamer un changement radical de politique en Irak. 

La politique extérieure n’est, par ailleurs, plus autant à l’ordre du jour qu’il y a quelques mois encore, car les risques d’une guerre entre les États-Unis et l’Iran se sont amoindris depuis la publication d’un rapport des agences de renseignement américaines (National Intelligence Estimate) sur le programme nucléaire iranien. Si le monde du renseignement américain estime que l’Iran a suspendu le développement de son programme nucléaire militaire – et, surtout, qu’il lui reste des années avant de pouvoir enrichir de l’uranium à grande échelle – cela remet à plus tard le jour où le président des États-Unis aurait à choisir entre tolérer ou attaquer l’Iran.

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