Cuban man sitting Les Haines/Flickr

奥巴马的古巴突破

马德里—领导人常常沦为他们所处社会政治环境的人质而不是决定者。世界极少见到1972年尼克松访问中国或1977年埃及总统萨达特(Anwar el-Sadat)访问耶路撒冷这样的改变历史的举动。

正因如此,古巴和美国这样的冲突才会持续如此之久。半个多世纪以来,没有一位美国总统愿意付出政治代价承认失败并重新与这个岛国建立外交关系。但是,随着任期的临近,奥巴马似乎冲破了这一束缚。

美国总统要想挑战政治约束,只能通过强大的游说。卡特总统成功牵线了以色列-埃及和解,并大胆地喊出了“巴勒斯坦故土”(他也成为第一个如此称呼的美国总统),在很大程度上都要归因于他无视犹太人的声音和组织。类似地,1991年10月,如果老布什不愿拿出他描述为由“一千名国会山游说者”所组成的“一些强大的政治力量”,他就无法迫使顽固的以色列总理沙米尔(Yitzhak Shamir)出席马德里和平会议。

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