Sur quoi misons-nous?

LAGUNA BEACH – Lorsque j’étudie les perspectives des économies et des marchés à l’échelle mondiale, je suis étonné, jusqu’à quel point les acteurs font collectivement un pari très risqué sur trois attentes fondamentales : une hausse importante et généralisée de la croissance mondiale, l’absence d’erreurs en matière de politiques publiques et la prévention contre les aléas du marché. Même si ces trois attentes sont sans aucun doute souhaitables, la triste réalité est qu’elles sont loin d’être acquises – et le fait de miser sur elles sans couvrir ses positions pourrait s’avérer beaucoup trop risqué pour les générations actuelles et futures.

Le premier volet du pari – une croissance mondiale présente dans toutes les régions du monde – prévoit la poursuite de la relance économique aux États-Unis, forte, cette année, d’un taux de croissance économique de 3 % soutenu par une croissance robuste des salaires. Il présume également que la croissance annuelle de la Chine se stabilisera entre 6,5 % et 7 %, permettant ainsi de désamorcer graduellement les risques causés par les îlots d’endettement excessif dans le secteur bancaire parallèle, même si le moteur de la croissance économique continue de s’éloigner des exportations et des dépenses en immobilisations du secteur public pour s’orienter vers la consommation intérieure et l’investissement privé.

Une autre hypothèse, encore moins certaine, qui sous-tend le pari d’une croissance généralisée veut que la zone euro et le Japon soient en mesure d’échapper à la mire de la croissance anémique et d’éviter la déflation, qui, en incitant les ménages et les entreprises à retarder leurs décisions d’achat, minerait un bilan économique déjà peu reluisant. Finalement, un tel pari repose sur l’hypothèse que les pays exportateurs de pétrole comme le Nigeria, le Venezuela et surtout la Russie parviendront à contrer l’implosion économique, pendant que les cours mondiaux du brut s’effondrent.

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