我们在下什么注?

拉古娜海滩—当我思考全球经济和市场前景时,我都会大吃一惊:世界在三大基本结果上下了巨大的集体赌注。这三个结果是:向实质性更高、更包容的全球增长的转变、避免政策错误以及预防市场事故。尽管所有者三个结果毫无疑问都是值得追求的,但不幸的现实是,它们还远远不能称之为确定——下注于它们而不对冲也许会给我们和子孙后代带来巨大的风险。

这一赌注的第一项——更包容的全球增长——认为美国经济将持续复苏,强健的工资增长将让今年的增长率达到3%。该赌注还认为中国年增长率将稳定在6.5—7%,因此影子银行体系杠杆过高的风险将可以逐步消化,即使经济增长引擎继续从出口和公共资本支出转变为国内消费和私人投资。

下注于更包容的增长的另一个更加不确定的假设是欧元区和日本将能够摆脱低增长、避免通缩。低增长和通缩迫使家庭和企业推迟购买决定,从而制约已然十分疲软的经济表现。最后,该赌注认为石油出口国——如尼日利亚、委内瑞拉,特别还有俄罗斯——将成功避免经济崩溃,即使全球油价暴跌。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/NWHejZP/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now