La prueba de credibilidad del Consejo de Seguridad

CANBERRA – La composición de la membresía del Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas se reconstituirá en 2015, pero no será muy diferente de las que la precedieron. Los vencedores de la Segunda Guerra Mundial – Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Francia, Rusia y China – seguirá manteniendo sus puestos permanentes, que vienen con poder de veto. Cinco nuevos miembros no permanentes – Nueva Zelanda, España, Angola, Malasia y Venezuela – ingresarán por un plazo de dos años, sustituyendo respectivamente a Australia, Luxemburgo, Ruanda, Corea del Sur y Argentina. Los cinco puestos no permanentes restantes estarán ocupados por un año más por Chad, Chile, Jordania, Lituania y Nigeria.

Aparte de Nigeria, ninguno de los demás países que desempeñan papeles importantes en el siglo veintiuno – entre ellos Brasil, Alemania, India, Japón, y Sudáfrica – tendrá un puesto. Todos los esfuerzos para reformar la estructura del Consejo de Seguridad se encuentran en un punto muerto– aún aquellos relativos a poner fin a la prohibición de reelección inmediata de los miembros no permanentes, lo que permitiría una participación activa continua, e incluso hasta una membresía formal permanente.

Reconstruir el Consejo de Seguridad para garantizar que las potencias más influyentes tengan siempre un lugar en la mesa no es la reforma más urgente, pero sigue siendo una de las más importantes. No se puede tomar por sentada la legitimidad institucional del Consejo en su calidad de principal tomador de decisiones a nivel mundial en temas de paz y seguridad. Si el Consejo continúa siendo conformado tal como está, es sólo cuestión de tiempo – tal vez otros 15 años en el mejor de los casos –  hasta que su credibilidad y autoridad en la mayor parte del mundo disminuyan a niveles peligrosos.

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