One year after the fall of Kabul and the Taliban’s return to power, Afghanistan is in dire straits, and America and the broader West have yet to conduct a proper post-mortem of the policy failures there. Worse, Russia appears to have taken the US withdrawal as an invitation to launch a new war of its own.
revisits the fall of Kabul to consider its implications for America and the world, one year later.
发自剑桥——那些对全球经济的巨大冲击——比如俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——顺理成章地吸引了最多的注意力,但是一种新的世界性“遍地火苗”模式也可能对我们的长期经济福祉产生同样影响。随着时间的推移,这些火苗可以汇集为一场大火,并产生与最初作为催化剂的那些大火同等巨大的威胁。
除了造成广泛死亡和破坏并使数百万人流离失所之外,乌克兰战争继续在整个全球经济中激起强烈的滞胀之风,由此造成的损害——无论是食品和能源价格上涨,还是新的供应链中断——都无法通过调整国内政策去轻易或迅速加以抵御。
对大多数国家来说,战争的直接经济后果包括更高通胀(侵蚀购买力)、更低增长、更多不平等以及更严重的金融不稳定。同时多边体系也在应对气候变化、疫情和战争移民等全球紧迫性问题所需的跨境政策协调上面临着更大的障碍。
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