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要提防一个遍地火苗的世界经济

May 13, 2022 Mohamed A. El-Erian

发自剑桥——那些对全球经济的巨大冲击——比如俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——顺理成章地吸引了最多的注意力，但是一种新的世界性“遍地火苗”模式也可能对我们的长期经济福祉产生同样影响。随着时间的推移，这些火苗可以汇集为一场大火，并产生与最初作为催化剂的那些大火同等巨大的威胁。

除了造成广泛死亡和破坏并使数百万人流离失所之外，乌克兰战争继续在整个全球经济中激起强烈的滞胀之风，由此造成的损害——无论是食品和能源价格上涨，还是新的供应链中断——都无法通过调整国内政策去轻易或迅速加以抵御。

对大多数国家来说，战争的直接经济后果包括更高通胀（侵蚀购买力）、更低增长、更多不平等以及更严重的金融不稳定。同时多边体系也在应对气候变化、疫情和战争移民等全球紧迫性问题所需的跨境政策协调上面临着更大的障碍。

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William Sippel May 18, 2022

One obvious solution is to ask OPEC to increase production and reduce oil prices. This will help developing countries. Second best, develop a system of price discrimination favoring poor countries. But, if OPEC does not accommodate, we will continue to have inflation, with OPEC always pushing the envelope whenever their economies recover.

OPEC will do none of this, of course. But, let's point out the role of OPEC in all of this.

As for food commodities, let's work with developing countries more with developing their agriculture--I know it is not sexy--but agriculture employs poor people, and feeds people. And, in the process, let's help them with water management and use as well.
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Elizabeth Pula May 16, 2022

Little fires everywhere do have a real tendency of becoming a conflagration. The bonfire of the vanities better start looking to Sri Lanka as the new reality model for future projection models sooner than later. More of the followers should have listened to Roubini a long time ago. All global national borders need to be locked down and protected sooner than later, and by that little quip, I do mean yesterday and ASAP. Read between all those lines of mine, fill in the blanks and start corrective measures, before the escalation factors of the little fires are totally out of control especially in the EU's own backyard. Russia and Putin are not the problem in this little scenario that is building into Armageddon now, and not later.
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Vidvuds Beldavs May 13, 2022

The 2009 economic crisis left an impression on Putin. He saw that the international system could be collapsed. Given Russia's disengagement from the global system Russia could survive. What if Putin's broader goal is to bring about a collapse of the system?
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