While Russian leaders have cited NATO enlargement as a justification for invading Ukraine, ordinary Russians have much to gain from Ukrainian membership. Ukraine’s accession would force the Kremlin to shed its addiction to military spending, rejoin the global economy, and dissuade future autocrats from pursuing a revanchist agenda.
CHICAGO – The recent NATO summit in Vilnius concluded with a pledge to admit Ukraine once its war with Russia ends. While the benefits of Ukraine’s accession to the alliance are well established, and most NATO countries view Ukraine as a prospective member, a consensus on the country’s immediate accession remains elusive.
But Ukraine and NATO’s existing members are not the only potential beneficiaries of Ukrainian membership. Even Russia, which invaded Ukraine under the pretext of preventing the alliance’s enlargement, has much to gain from this prospect. Ukraine’s entry into NATO would enable Russia to waste fewer resources on producing and stockpiling munitions. Although the Kremlin’s obsession with restoring the Russian empire will not vanish overnight, its impact on decision-making could be reduced. Much like Finland’s recent accession, once Ukraine’s entry is a fait accompli, it will cease to be a point of contention.
While Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies, it could yield significant benefits for Russia’s citizens. With the dream of imperial restoration all but dead, future Russian leaders would find it increasingly difficult to use revanchist and isolationist rhetoric to consolidate power. Moreover, a modern, forward-looking government in Moscow could prevent the emergence of a “Weimar Russia” scenario in which a defeated, economically paralyzed state becomes a potential breeding ground for would-be tyrants.
CHICAGO – The recent NATO summit in Vilnius concluded with a pledge to admit Ukraine once its war with Russia ends. While the benefits of Ukraine’s accession to the alliance are well established, and most NATO countries view Ukraine as a prospective member, a consensus on the country’s immediate accession remains elusive.
But Ukraine and NATO’s existing members are not the only potential beneficiaries of Ukrainian membership. Even Russia, which invaded Ukraine under the pretext of preventing the alliance’s enlargement, has much to gain from this prospect. Ukraine’s entry into NATO would enable Russia to waste fewer resources on producing and stockpiling munitions. Although the Kremlin’s obsession with restoring the Russian empire will not vanish overnight, its impact on decision-making could be reduced. Much like Finland’s recent accession, once Ukraine’s entry is a fait accompli, it will cease to be a point of contention.
While Ukraine’s accession to NATO would be bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies, it could yield significant benefits for Russia’s citizens. With the dream of imperial restoration all but dead, future Russian leaders would find it increasingly difficult to use revanchist and isolationist rhetoric to consolidate power. Moreover, a modern, forward-looking government in Moscow could prevent the emergence of a “Weimar Russia” scenario in which a defeated, economically paralyzed state becomes a potential breeding ground for would-be tyrants.