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Yes, the US Economy Is Likely in Recession

The release of data showing that the US economy has contracted for two quarters in a row has triggered an intense semantic debate among economists, pundits, and political operatives. The Biden administration and many commentators are at pains to deny that the US is in a recession, but history is not on their side.

CAMBRIDGE – The latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that the US economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth. That accords with a popular definition of a recession. But economists have noted that any official declaration of a US recession must come instead from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which carefully assesses various monthly macroeconomic indicators observed over extended periods.