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特朗普的强势美元软肋

发自圣塔巴巴拉——自今年年初以来美元价值已经上涨超过8%,逼近十多年来未见的高点,而多项市场指标则显示未来几个月还会还会继续上升。

乍一看,这似乎证明了高扬着“让美国再次伟大起来”大旗走马上任的美国总统特朗普确实有点手段。美元走强可能被视为他那些促增长型经济政策的效果。然而仔细观察就会发现情况其实更为复杂;事实上,特朗普可能会导致美元大幅下跌。

首先,特朗普在美元升值中发挥了多少作用还不得而知。就算这是他的功劳,强势美元也并不一定有利于他的政策目标;而汇率甚至都算不上是衡量货币真实实力的准确指标。

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