Mexico US border sign Sandy Huffaker/AFP/Getty Images

La verdad sobre el TLCAN

BERKELEY – Mientras el presidente estadounidense Donald Trump recibe ofertas para construir su supuesto "hermoso muro" a lo largo de la frontera con México, su administración también se dispone a construir algunos muros figurativos con su vecino del sur, renegociando el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte. Antes de que los funcionarios estadounidenses den más pasos, harían bien en reconocer algunos hechos básicos.

Trump ha calificado al TLCAN como el "peor acuerdo de comercio" jamás aprobado por los Estados Unidos, alegando que ha generado "terribles pérdidas" de empleos y producción manufacturera. Sin embargo, nada de eso se basa en la evidencia. Incluso los escépticos del TLCAN han llegado a la conclusión de que sus efectos negativos sobre el empleo neto de la industria manufacturera en los Estados Unidos han sido pequeños o inexistentes.

Trump puede preferir no centrarse en hechos, pero es útil comenzar con unos pocos. El comercio bilateral entre EE.UU. y México asciende a más de $ 500 mil millones por año. Estados Unidos es, con mucho, el mayor socio comercial de México en materia de mercaderías, mientras que México es su tercer mayor socio comercial (después de Canadá y China).

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