Mnuchin budget Drew Angerer/Getty Images

ميزانية ترمب السحرية

كمبريدج ــ أصدرت إدارة الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب الآن خططها الخاصة بالميزانية للسنة المالية 2018. وبين التفاصيل الواردة في الوثيقة الصادرة بعنوان "أميركا أولا: مخطط الميزانية لجعل أميركا عظيمة مرة أخرى"، سنجد تقديرات للمسار المتوقع للديون الفيدرالية الإجمالية كنسبة من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، والتي أظهرت انخفاضا من مستواها الحالي الذي يبلغ نحو 106% إلى 80% في عام 2027. ومن المتوقع أن تعكس الديون التي يحتفظ بها عامة الناس هذا المسار، فتتقلص من 77% إلى 60% خلال هذه الفترة.

من المؤسف أن أي من التوقعين لا يمكن تصديقه.

صحيح أن الانخفاض المستمر والملموس في الدين الحكومي (نسبة إلى الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) سيكون خبرا يستحق الترحيب من قِبَل أولئك الذين يساوون بين المديونية وذلك النوع من الهشاشة المالية التي تقلل من قدرة الحكومة على التعامل مع الصدمات السلبية. ولكن كما أشار العديد من المنتقدين، تبدو الافتراضات الاقتصادية التي يقوم عليها السيناريو الحميد الذي تعرضه إدارة ترمب غير واردة. بل إنها متضاربة داخليا في واقع الأمر.

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