Je načase vést rozhovory s Íránem

BERLÍN – Nedávný souhrnný posudek jaderného programu a ambicí Íránu vypracovaný americkými tajnými službami – nazvaný National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) – rozproudil mezi pěti stálými členy Rady bezpečnosti Organizace spojených národů a Německem čerstvé strategické diskuse. Taková revize strategického uvažování je zřejmě nejpotřebnější pro ty v Bushově administrativě (a několik dalších mimo ni), kdo až donedávna prorokovali bezprostřední nebezpečí.

Z hlediska Evropanů NIE nerozptýlil, ale spíš potvrdil obavy, které v roce 2003 přiměly EU-3 (Británii, Francii a Německo) k jednání – zejména to, že jaderný program Íránu by nakonec mohl zemi zajistit jaderný potenciál a že ještě předtím by mohl vyvolat šíření jaderných zbraní v regionu.

NIE také potvrdil dva předpoklady, jimiž se od té doby evropský diplomatický přístup řídil: Írán reaguje na pozitivní i negativní pobídky zvenčí a nejlepším způsobem jak ovlivnit íránské vůdce je zohledňovat legitimní íránské zájmy. Většina Evropanů, již se problematikou zabývají, se také domnívá, že Írán usiluje o potenciál, díky němuž by nakonec měl po ruce všechny možnosti, včetně rychlého vývoje jaderné zbraně, spíš než o pořízení, natož otestování zbraně, a tedy porušení Smlouvy o nešíření jaderných zbraní.

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