对话伊朗正当时

柏林—最近美国谍报组织对伊朗核计划和野心的全面评估—即所谓的“国家情报预估”(NIE)开启了联合国安理会五大常任理事国和德国之间新的战略商讨。这种战略上的重新考量对于布什政府(和其他一些政府)中的官员们而言可能最为必要的。这些人直到最近还一直预言着迫在眉睫的危险。

对欧洲人而言,NIE非但没有消除,反而更确认了欧盟三强(英、法、德)在2003年就共有的一个担忧,即伊朗的核计划可能最终使其拥有军事核能力,甚至在此之前还可能引发区域性的核扩散。

NIE还确认了一直指导欧洲外交策略的两种假设:伊朗会对外部的积极和消极因素做出回应,考虑伊朗人的合法利益是对伊朗领导人施加影响的最佳方式。与这一问题打交道的大多数欧洲人还认为伊朗的目的是最终拥有全面的核能力,包括快速发展而不是购买核武器,更别说测试核武器了。这样它就会违反《核不扩散条约》。

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