Come infilare l’ago fiscale

PALO ALTO – Le elezioni sono spesso legate allo stato dell’economia, in particolar modo in tempi duri. Quando la crescita ed il lavoro sono in difficoltà, gli elettori buttano fuori il governo in carica, sia che si tratti della sinistra spagnola, della destra francese o dei centristi olandesi. Gli Stati Uniti non fanno eccezione. Dopo tre anni di Grande Depressione, Herbert Hoover fu infatti sconfitto da Franklin Delano Roosevelt, mentre, nel 1980, Ronald Reagan prese il posto di Jimmy Carter dopo un periodo di stagflazione.

Allo stesso tempo, la prestazione economica dipende per gran parte dalla politica economica. La Grande Depressione è stata infatti intensificata da una politica monetaria inadeguata, un aumento delle tasse e da politiche commerciali protezionistiche. Similarmente, una politica monetaria allentata da parte degli Stati Uniti a metà del decennio scorso ha aperto la strada alla grande recessione, contribuendo in modo significativo all’esplosione del debito e alimentando la bolla immobiliare scoppiata nel 2007-2008.

Il risultato dello scontro di due politiche legate fra loro rappresenterà l’elemento chiave per il delineamento dello scenario politico ed economico sia statunitense che europeo. Il primo è tra “austerità” e “crescita”, ovvero tra riduzione del deficit a breve termine e nuovi stimoli fiscali. Molti a sinistra, su entrambe le sponde dell’Atlantico, sostengono che sia necessaria una spesa pubblica maggiore, non minore, per risollevare le economie e farle uscire dalla recessione. I sostenitori della destra credono invece che la priorità dei governi dovrebbe essere il consolidamento fiscale.

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