Paul Lachine

Le géant aux pieds d'argile

PARIS – La "guerre des devises" qui commence va probablement dominer les discussions du sommet du G20 à Séoul. Elle doit être évaluée au regard de la nouvelle répartition des pouvoirs sur l'échiquier mondial – une répartition qui a évoluée en seulement deux ans, du fait de la première crise de l'économie mondialisée.

Elle a laissé nombre de pays développés dans une situation économique si difficile qu'ils se débattent encore aujourd'hui pour se redresser. A l'opposé, après une courte phase de ralentissement, les pays émergeants sont parvenus à relancer le moteur de la croissance et progressent maintenant à toute allure, avec des taux de croissance impressionnants.

Tout cela a eu également des conséquences financières et monétaires. Même si aucune devise n'est encore en position de remplacer le dollar au sein des réserves mondiales, ce "privilège exorbitant", ainsi que De Gaulle l'avait formulé, fait maintenant l'objet d'attaques en douce. En mars 2010, la groupe "ASEAN + 3" (les pays de l'ASEAN auxquels s'ajoutent la Chine, le Japon et la Corée du Sud) a créé un fonds d'aide d'urgence de 120 milliards de dollars dans le cadre de "l'Inititative de Chiang Mai". Cette fois-ci, contrairement à ce qui s'était passé en 1997, les USA n'ont même pas tenté de torpiller cet embryon de "Fonds monétaire asiatique".

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/r79XSaA/fr;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now