Tunisie: une révolution prometteuse

DAVOS – Le monde entier célèbre la révolution démocratique de la Tunisie qui a déclenché une cascade de soulèvements dans la région, notamment en Egypte, avec des conséquences inouïes. Le monde a maintenant les yeux fixés sur ce petit pays de 10 millions d'habitants pour tirer les leçons des événements récents, tout en se demandant quelle va être la suite : ce jeune peuple qui a renversé un autocrate corrompu parviendra-t-il à créer une démocratie stable et fonctionnelle ?

D'abord les leçons. En premier lieu il ne suffit pas que l'Etat assure la croissance économique. Le PIB de la Tunisie a augmenté en moyenne de 5% par an au cours des 20 dernières années, au point d'être souvent citée comme l'une des économies les plus performantes de la région.

De même il ne suffit pas de se conformer aux exigences des marchés financiers - cela permet sans doute d'avoir des obligations bien cotées et de répondre à l'attente des investisseurs étrangers, mais cela ne s'accompagne pas nécessairement de créations d'emplois et d'une augmentation du niveau de vie de la population. La crise de 2008 a mis en évidence la faillibilité du marché obligataire et celle des agences de notation. Elles ont baissé la note de la Tunisie au moment où elle tentait de passer d'un régime autoritaire à la démocratie, ce qui n'est pas à mettre à leur crédit. Cela doit rester dans les annales. 

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