Paul Lachine

Le printemps des zombies

NEW YORK – Un esprit printanier souffle sur les Etats-Unis, les optimistes voient des « pousses vertes » signes de guérison de la crise financière et de la récession. Le monde est bien différent du printemps dernier, lorsque l’administration Bush affirmait encore haut et fort voir « la lumière au bout du tunnel ». Les métaphores et l’administration ont changé, mais pas l’optimisme semble-t-il.

La bonne nouvelle est qu’il se peut que la chute libre se termine. Le taux de recul économique est moindre. Le fond ne serait pas loin – on le touchera peut-être avant la fin de l’année. Mais cela ne veut pas dire que l’économie mondiale sera véritablement rétablie d’ici peu. Toucher le fond n’est pas une raison pour abandonner les mesures énergiques prises pour ressusciter l’économie de par le monde.

Notre récession est complexe : c’est une crise économique combinée à une crise financière. Avant qu’elle n’éclate, les consommateurs criblés de dettes aux Etats-Unis étaient le moteur de la croissance économique mondiale. Ce modèle est tombé en panne et il n’est pas près d’être remplacé. Car, même si les banques américaines étaient bien portantes, la santé des foyers serait toujours dévastée. Les Américains empruntaient et consommaient, supposant que le prix de l’immobilier ne cesserait d’augmenter.

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