El volcán dormido de las finanzas globales

El rechazo del Tratado Constitucional de la Unión Europea por parte de los electores franceses y holandeses fue, según todas las evidencias, más un rechazo a la globalización no reglamentada que a Europa. La inestabilidad general de las relaciones sociales --sobre todo, pero no únicamente, del empleo-- se está haciendo intolerable poco a poco para una parte cada vez mayor de la población en muchos países desarrollados, no sólo en Europa. Y no puede haber un orden económico estable --al menos no en los países democráticos-- si los electorados rechazan sus fundamentos.

El capitalismo se pudo reconstruir después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial porque se le reforzó con tres tipos de reglamentación que eran necesarios: la seguridad social, que sirvió como uno de los estabilizadores principales, al menos en los países desarrollado; herramientas keynesianas para combatir las depresiones cíclicas internas; y una política universal de salarios altos orientada a estimular el consumo general, sin el cual el genio del capitalismo --la producción masiva-- no funciona.

Pero la realineación de los países ricos y desarrollados en torno a las políticas monetaristas promovidas por economistas como Milton Friedman, que comenzó alrededor de 1970, rompió con todo eso. No mucho después, el dólar se separó del patrón oro. Desde entonces, el sistema financiero internacional ha sufrido una inestabilidad casi constante. Las crisis se han multiplicado y cada una parece peor que la anterior.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/LDn6R7n/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now