Jon Krause

La trappola della sicurezza

CHICAGO – Anche in un contesto di una crescente integrazione a livello mondiale, la parola “sicurezza” spunta di frequente in espressioni quali “sicurezza alimentare” o “sicurezza energetica”. Dietro queste espressioni ci sono di solito paesi che costruiscono e controllano le proprie strutture di produzione senza badare a costi, come i paesi arabi che coltivano il grano nel deserto senza l’ausilio dell’acqua, e la Cina che ha fatto il suo ingresso nel capitale di alcune società petrolifere in Sudan. Ma dal punto di vista economico, hanno un senso queste attività? Se così non fosse, cosa si dovrebbe fare a livello mondiale per ridurre la necessità di queste operazioni?

Prendiamo, innanzitutto, in considerazione le risorse straniere. Si potrebbe pensare che un paese che possiede riserve di petrolio straniere possa utilizzare i profitti ricavati dalla vendita per salvaguardare la sua economia dai prezzi elevati del petrolio nel contesto mondiale. Il che non ha comunque senso dal punto di vista economico. Il mercato mondiale fissa il prezzo del petrolio in base al costo di opportunità. Piuttosto che sovvenzionare il prezzo del petrolio nel mercato interno (spingendo, quindi, l’industria manifatturiera ed i consumatori interni ad utilizzare una quantità eccessiva di petrolio), avrebbe più senso lasciare che il prezzo interno aumenti fino a raggiungere i livelli del prezzo internazionale, distribuendo in seguito alla popolazione la sopravvenienza attiva delle riserve petrolifere straniere.

Un aspetto importante da considerare è che le decisioni economiche fondamentali non dovrebbero essere influenzate dal possesso di nuove riserve petrolifere straniere. Ma, a causa delle pressioni politiche esercitate da piccoli ma potenti gruppi di interesse, eventuali sopravvenienze attive verrebbero, inevitabilmente, utilizzate a livello nazionale sotto forma di sussidi incauti. Pertanto, il paese in questione arriverà a prendere delle decisioni economiche non proprio ideali.

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