布雷顿森林III

新加坡—很多分析师和观察员认为,2008年危机之前伴随世界经济的全球失衡已经大大消散了。但是,固然此后中国的经常项目盈余和美国的赤字都略有下降,但失衡真的得到纠正了吗?更重要的是,后危机时代的全球经济能同时实现增长和平衡吗?

要回答这些问题,很重要的一点是理解失衡的基本动态。一国的经常项目是其投资率和储蓄率之差。2007年,美国的储蓄率为GDP的14.6%,但投资率为19.6%,故会产生经常项目盈余。与此相反,中国的固定投资率为GDP的41.7%,储蓄率为51.9%,其反映便是大量盈余。

自2007年以来,美国经常项目赤字有所减少,但这并不是因为储蓄率提高了。外部赤字因投资活动的大幅冷却而被挤出,而由于政府财政状况恶化,美国的总体投资率已降至GDP的13%。与此同时,中国的储蓄率仍然非常高。其盈余之所以减少,是因为投资增加得更快,达到了GDP的49%左右。换句话说,如今美国比危机爆发前储蓄得更少,而中国投资得更多。

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