Der politische Aktienmarkt

Viele Wirtschafts- und Finanzanalysten beklagen, dass die Aktienmärkte von Schwellenländern oftmals stark von ihren Regierungen manipuliert würden und eher politisch als konjunkturell seien. Im Gegensatz dazu scheint bei Aktienmärkten in Industrienationen unausgesprochen die Annahme zu bestehen, dass diese von einer ursprünglichen Kraft wirtschaftlicher Natur getrieben werden und eine Prognose ihrer Wertentwicklung demnach mit einer Wachstumsprognose für Bäume vergleichbar ist.

Diese Beschreibung von Aktienmärkten in Entwicklungsländern ist nicht falsch, nur voreingenommen, weil die gleiche Beschreibung für Börsen in Industrieländern gilt. Die besten Analysten wissen, dass eine Prognose der Wertentwicklung des Aktienmarktes eines jeden Landes im Wesentlichen bedeutet vorauszusagen, wie gut es Investoren an der Börse dem Willen der Regierung nach im aktuellen politischen Umfeld ergehen soll.

Nehmen wir den Aktienmarkt der Vereinigten Staaten, den mit Abstand größten der Welt. Der allgemeinen Auffassung nach bleiben Unternehmen von der Regierung unbehelligt und die Renditen auf Kapitalanlagen an der US-Börse reflektieren die grundlegenden Kräfte eines starken kapitalistischen Wirtschaftssystems. Dies ist einer der Gründe, warum die USA eine magnetische Anziehungskraft auf Portefeuille-Investoren aus aller Welt ausübt.

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