La tormenta perfecta de una recesión global

NUEVA YORK – Cada vez es más probable que la economía global –no sólo Estados Unidos- experimente una recesión seria. Los acontecimientos recientes sugieren que todas las economías del G7, si no están ya en recesión, caerán pronto en una. Otras economías avanzadas o mercados emergentes (el resto de la zona del euro, Nueva Zelanda, Islandia, Estonia, Latvia y algunas economías del sudeste europeo) también están acercándose a un aterrizaje recesivo dificultoso. Cuando lleguen allí, habrá una marcada desaceleración de los BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) y otros mercados emergentes.

Esta recesión global que se vislumbra está alimentada por varios factores: el colapso de las burbujas inmobiliarias en Estados Unidos, el Reino Unido, España, Irlanda y otros miembros de la zona del euro; la pinchadura de las burbujas crediticias donde hubo dinero y crédito fáciles durante demasiado tiempo; la severa crisis crediticia y de liquidez que siguió a la crisis hipotecaria norteamericana; los efectos negativos en la riqueza y la inversión de la caída de los mercados accionarios (que ya sufrieron una baja de más del 20% a nivel global); los efectos globales a través de los vínculos comerciales de la recesión en Estados Unidos (que todavía representa aproximadamente el 30% del PBI global); la debilidad del dólar estadounidense, que reduce la competitividad de los socios comerciales de Estados Unidos; y los efectos estanflacionarios de los altos precios del petróleo y las materias primas, que están obligando a los bancos centrales a aumentar las tasas de interés para combatir la inflación en un momento en el que existen severos riesgos negativos para el crecimiento y la estabilidad financiera.

Los datos oficiales sugieren que la economía norteamericana entró en una recesión en el primer trimestre de este año. La economía rebotó –en una recesión caracterizada por un breve período intermedio de recuperación económica- en el segundo trimestre, estimulada por los efectos temporarios que tuvieron en el consumo 100.000 millones de dólares en retribuciones impositivas. Pero esos efectos se esfumarán a fines del verano boreal.

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