全球经济走弱的叙事结构

发自纽黑文——最近出现的全球经济走弱迹象令许多人开始思考未来几年的恶劣经济表现究竟会蔓延到何种地步。我们是否正面对着一个长时间的全球低迷期,甚至可能是一场萧条?

当今在预测上的一个根本问题就是经济减缓的最终成因其实是在心理学和社会学意义上的,并与不断波动的信心和变化中的“动物精神(animal spirits)”相关联。在乔治·阿科洛夫(George Akerlof)与笔者合著的《动物精神》一书中,我们提出这些转化反映了不断改变的故事内容,新叙事方式的流行,以及互相关联的世界观,而这些都是难以被量化的。

事实上,大多数专业经济学家似乎并不对全球经济的前景感到极度忧心。比如说,9月6日世界经济合作与发展组织发表了一份针对近期全球经济展望的中期评估,这份由该组织副秘书长兼首席经济学家皮尔·卡罗·帕多安(Pier Carlo Padoan)执笔的报告只是轻描淡写地指出可能很快会出现“重大风险”——这其实就是不确定性的另一种说法。

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