ytwnineLe mythe du découplage

PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIE – Le ralentissement de l’économie américaine est une mauvaise nouvelle pour les Européens, malgré les affirmations de certains selon lesquelles l’économie européenne serait parvenue à se découpler de celle des Etats-Unis. L’idée de découplage est basée sur des notions économiques erronées – et sur la réticence de certains Européens à accepter le fait que la brève expansion économique de l’Europe tire à sa fin.

Il est vrai que le marché américain a un peu perdu de son importance pour les exportations européennes, au profit de l’augmentation des éechanges commerciaux avec l’Asie. Et alors ? Ces échanges ne sont que l’un des nombreux liens importants entre les économies américaine et européenne. Dans l’économie globale interconnectée actuelle, si l’incertitude concernant les perspectives économiques américaines s’accroît un jour, la confiance des consommateurs hollandais, par exemple, chute le lendemain.

Les liens entre l’Europe et les Etats-Unis sont franchement plus complexes que ne veulent l’admettre les avocats du découplage. La Réserve fédérale américaine (la Fed), par exemple, abaisse agressivement ses taux d’intérêt pour prévenir une éventuelle récession. En conséquence, l’euro s’apprécie non seulement par rapport au dollar, mais également contre les devises asiatiques, dont les banques centrales interviennent sur les marchés des changes pour fixer la valeur de leur monnaie par rapport au dollar.

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