“超级明星城市”之谜

在最近被人们广泛谈论的标题为“超级明星城市”的论文中,经济学家约瑟夫·吉尔科, 克里斯托弗·迈耶和托德·赛奈称这样的重量级城市¾不只伦敦、巴黎和纽约,还包括如费城和圣迭哥¾和其他城市相比,可能会出现“房地产价值上逐渐增大的差距”。作者仿佛在说,这些地区的房地产热可能会一直持续下去。

任何这样的言论都无疑会引起人们的关注。作为地产价格走高的著名怀疑论者,我最近被多次邀请与该论文的作者进行辩论。

很多人认为超级明星城市理论证明了他们的预感,亦即尽管在其他地方(特别是美国)房价低迷,投资者们仍可期望在这些超级城市购买房产以获得巨大的长期利益,尽管这些地方的房产已然价格不菲。但正如我在与文章作者的辩论中所说,如果仔细阅读了他们的论文并思考了其中的问题,人们便会发现并没有支持这种结论的理由。

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