不确定的阿拉伯国家

马德里—过去两年中席卷阿拉伯世界的革命暴露了重要阿拉伯国家的极度脆弱性。除了历史文明古国是例外(比如埃及和摩洛哥),大部分阿拉伯国家是欧洲殖民主义的人工产物,迥异的部落和种族被组成了单一的国家,只有独裁统治和共同的敌人——犹太复国主义及其西方后台——能让他们团结起来。

但是,今天的乱象不再因针对外国势力的愤怒而起;而是反映了去殖民地过程的第二阶段:被独裁者拧在一起的诸民族和部落开始意识到自主决定的权利。事实上,在人工早就的旧阿拉伯世界废墟上崛起新的阿拉伯国家也不是完全没有可能。美国入侵伊拉克就是榜样——这打破了中央政府的权力,让种族和宗教飞地获得了权力。

南斯拉夫——威尔逊主义外交政策的拙劣产物——所发生的事情可能中东更加互相怀疑的诸帝国间重演。弗洛伊德所谓的“差异细微的自我陶醉”导致南斯拉夫分裂为七个小国(包括科索沃),在此期间还经历了二战以来欧洲最严重的流血。阿拉伯国家可以避免类似的命运吗?

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