Dean Rohrer

Новая игра на Ближнем Востоке

МАДРИД. До сих пор остается неясным, действительно ли Арабская весна провозгласит возможные демократические государства посреди арабского мира. И хотя еще не улеглась пыль после нескольких месяцев беспорядков в Тунисе, Каире и других местах, эти события уже оказали сильное влияние на стратегическую структуру Ближнего Востока.

До недавнего времени регион был разделен на два лагеря: группировка несогласованных и слабых умеренных арабских стран и «Ось сопротивления», сформированная Ираном, Сирией, Хамасом и Хесболлой против американских и израильских интересов в регионе. Ведомая стратегией «нулевых проблем» Турция, в попытке занять лидирующую роль в ближневосточной политике, сблизилась с Сирией и Ираном.

Арабская весна расшатала хрупкий фундамент, на котором была выстроена вся Ось сопротивления, и практически привела его к краху. Первым выбывшим был Хамас. Страшась последствий упадка своих покровителей в Дамаске, Хамас тактически вышел из Оси и позволил Египту вести его к примирению с прозападной Палестинской автономией на условиях, от которых они отказались при бывшем египетском правителе Хосни Мубараке.

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