Dean Rohrer

Les nouvelles règes du jeu au Moyen-Orient

MADRID – Il n’est pas encore certain que le printemps arabe aboutisse à l’avènement de démocraties crédibles dans le monde arabe. La poussière n’est toujours pas redescendue après des mois de soulèvements à Tunis, au Caire, et ailleurs, mais les révoltes arabes ont d’ores et déjà un impact sur la structure stratégique du Moyen-Orient. 

Jusqu’à il y a peu, la région était divisée en deux camps : un alignement arabe modéré incohérent et affaibli et un « axe de résistance » formé par l’Iran, la Syrie, le Hamas et le Hezbollah et opposé aux desseins de l’Amérique et d’Israël dans la région. Ayant adopté une stratégie « zéro problème » vis-à-vis ses voisins, la Turquie s’est rapprochée de la Syrie et de l’Iran avec l’objectif d’assoir son rôle de leader au Moyen-Orient.

Le printemps arabe a révélé la fragilité des fondations sur lesquelles repose l’ensemble de l’Axe de résistance, le poussant au bord de la rupture. Le premier a en sortir fut le Hamas. Craignant les conséquences de la chute de ses s à Damas, le Hamas s’est tactiquement retiré de l’axe et a laissé l’Egypte le mener vers la réconciliation avec l’Autorité Palestinienne pro-occidentale selon des termes qu’il avait refusé d’accepter sous l’égide de l’égyptien Hosni Moubarak.

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